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Please Contact Us. There are other puzzle pieces besides La Nia to consider in the forecast, which leads us to the next question. Winter 2022-2023 should be dominated by an active storm track in the eastern half of the country, running from the western Gulf of Mexico to the northeast, across the Virginias, and across interior New York State and New England. As usual, the polar vortex is another important wild card in the outlook. Best for planning. The airport needs to record around 0.37" of rain during December to escape being ranked in the top 10 driest years on record. RELATED: La Nina is here and it's not good news for Arizona's drought, The Official NOAA Winter Outlook for 2022-2023 has been released and as of right now the odds are slightly tilted towards below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures for the desert southwest. The forecast for precipitation is a 33% chance that they will be above normal and a 33% chance that they will end up below normal. The forecast panned out well for precipitation as it was drier than normal while February came in cooler than normal thanks to the average monthly low temperature being 4.7 below normal. Temperature extremes ranged from a high of 105 on May 15th to a low of 33 on March 8th. My model is showing drier than normal conditions for most of California, majorly drier than normal for Southern California than Northern. Sorry, the location you searched for was not found. Rainfall amounts, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, varied widely across the metro area as is usually the case during the summer thunderstorm season. See more current weather Annual Weather Averages in Sedona Airport Sedona Airport is 29 miles from Arizona, so the actual climate in Arizona can vary a bit. What is the chance of rain in Arizona in January? What is the average temperature in Arizona in January? Feb March 2023 . By contrast, much of the southern third of the nation from the Southwest into the Southern Plains, Southeast and Florida is expected to have a warmer-than-average January. The seasonal average temperature of 71.0 goes into the record books as the 5th warmest Spring on record. temperatures from Washington and northern . The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded 0.23" which ranks as the 38th wettest June on record, tied with 1980. We recognize our responsibility to use data and technology for good. Above normal moisture values for early October combined with several atmospheric disturbances moving across the area produced isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms on a daily basis during the first ten days of the month. Some of our favorite winter destinations in Arizona include the adorable little town of Flagstaff, the amazing Mount Lemmon in southern Arizona (the drive up alone is incredible), and mountain towns like Payson and Prescott. Arctic 2022 Summer - Coldest on Record. Tracking NFL Coaches Fired After 2022 Season Kliff Kingsbury and Lovie Smith are the latest NFL head coaches to be fired By Max Molski Published January 9, 2023 Updated on January 9, 2023 . The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded only 0.81" which is around a half an inch below normal and ranks as the 53rd driest September on record, tied with 1949. With record to near-record heat blistering Colorado on Monday, you might think the smoke in the air is from a Colorado wildfire. The atmosphere's response, which ultimately matters for our weather patterns, may resemble a winter without a La Nia. NWS The forecast for precipitation is a 24% chance that they will be above normal and a 43% chance that they will end up below normal. Expect a few rainy days but usually not more than 3. Drought, wildfires, heat and monsoon storms: Arizona has seen its fair share of severe weather. This update comes as Arizona sits deep in drought. Rainfall amounts, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, ranged from 0.75" to 2.50". Questions? It will modify the jet stream pattern over North America and the Pacific Ocean, extending its reach to the rest of the world. Flagstaff, AZ Winter Weather Forecast | AccuWeather Today WinterCast Hourly Daily Radar MinuteCast Monthly Air Quality Health & Activities Winter Storm Warning Snow and Ice Outlook 12 - 18. Essentially, the formula uses sunspot activity andthe effect the moon has on the earth to be able to predict weather about two years in advance. Toggle navigation. During 2020,2021 and the first half of 2022 . On average, there are 1 rainy days in Arizona during January. Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 95 on the 26th to a low of 33 on the 8th. 2023 www.azcentral.com. the . Youll definitely want to check out some of our favorite, We say absolutely! The temperatures in Arizona in February are comfortable with low of 11 C and and high up to 21 C.. Winter temperatures are once again expected to be split between a warmer than average South and colder than average North, with colder risks in parts of the East. The average yearly temperature, through the end of September, of 74.7 is 1.1 above normal and ranks as the 6th warmest on record, tied with 2016. Friday, April 08, 2022 Flagstaff Weather -- April 8, 2022 Student forecaster Julia Castro has the latest on the weekend weather in northern Arizona. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts for temperature a 57% chance that they will end up above normal and a 10% chance that they will end up below normal. On the 6th, the 20th & 21st and the 28th & 29th. For the third year in a row, the La Nia weather phenomenon is expected to bring a lack of precipitation and warmer-than-average temperatures for not just Arizona, but the entire U.S. Southwest. 2022 monsoon season in Arizona expected to be above-normal - good news for state agriculture . The water year is below normal since October 1st at 6.16" which ranks as the 17th driest water year to date with one month left in the water year calendar. Dry conditions prevailed from the 11th to the 14th before an upper level low moved across the area bringing scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms and small hail on the 15th & 16th. Click on hotel for more details. But if it weakens, that could spell a colder winter for some. BOOKMARK THE MAIN WEBSITE BY CLICKING HERE. A record cool high temperature was set on the 24th with a high of 67 breaking the record of 68 from 1936 & 1978. The annual monsoon was not quite as active as it was in 2021 with rainfall amounts ranging widely across the metro area from 3" to 8" with localized higher amounts up to 12". HOME > Outlook Maps >Seasonal Forecast Discussion. There should be no reason you shouldnt be informed. The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded a trace of rain which is well below normal and ranks as the 16th driest November on record. If you are NOT receiving the e-mails and are a full member, your account is either expired or you need to troubleshoot. The National Weather Service in Phoenix predicts that Arizona is going to have a very wet and active monsoon season this summer, with nearly a 70% chance of precipitation expected to reach near. It is certainly a possibility with the threat of another La Nia on the horizon. One exception was the pandemic year of 2020, when travel all but came to a. Desert biome, Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument. NOTE: The Winter 2022 Tier for MEMBERS and ANYONE INTERESTED is OPEN FOR JANUARY THROUGH END FEBRUARY WITH REDUCED SEASONAL TIER RATES. The average wind speed was 8.1 mph which is slightly below the average was 8.2 mph. With that in mind, let's dig into the month-by-month details and follow up with some of the factors driving this forecast. Meanwhile, the southern U.S. is expected to have a warmer than usual winter. On average, the Tucson airport records two days with thunderstorms. No matter which part of Arizona youre from (or plan to visit), winter is a great time to arrive. Rainfall at the Tucson International airport, the official location in Tucson, of 4.80" is just under two & a third inches below normal and ranks as the 19th driest January through August period on record. The Farmers' Almanac is out with their Extended Winter Outlook for 2021-2022 and is calling for a "Frosty Flip-Flop Winter". This is a quite a difference from a year ago when the airport recorded 13.84" of rain through the end of October. CPC forecasts, thanks to weakening La Nia conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, probabilities leaning for below normal rainfall through the Spring season then equal chances for below, near or above normal rainfall for most the remainder of the year. Copyright TWC Product and Technology LLC 2014, 2023. Search. NOAA NCEI State Climate Summary for Arizona, 2022; Local Programs. Thus expect the consecutive year streak of above normal temperatures to be extended to 25 years. This ranks as the 11th driest water year period (October 1st to September 30th) on record. Every one of them ended up being cooler than a year ago. No matter how you like your winter, youre sure to find it in Arizona. All NOAA. If you are a current member and NOT on a monthly plan, your Winter 2022 tier expires March 1st, but do not renew until the Spring 2022 tier is opened, which youll receive an email then. View detailed forecast, WeatherTAB 2023. MAIN WEBSITE: Dont forget. Officially, 7.41" of rain was recorded at the International airport which ranks, in the 128 year climatic record period (1895-2022) for Tucson, as the 13th driest year on record. You can expect sleet, snow, and rain throughout the season. For more detailed information, click the link below. Yuck. There were 23 days in which the daily low temperature was in the 80s. The Tucson International airport, the official recording location in Tucson, recorded 4.94" which ranks as the 46th driest monsoon on record. Take control of your data. Nearly 10,000 power outages were reported in Arizona Wednesday as a winter storm passed through the state, one of many places in the U.S. dealing with winter National Weather Service NWS Tucson Arizona 520 North Park Ave, Suite 304 Tucson, AZ 85719 (520) 670-6526 Comments? The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded 2.82" which is just over eight-tenths of an inch above normal and ranks as the 34th wettest August on record. According to the CPC, there is a tendency for back-to-back La Nia winters which increases forecaster confidence in the probability that this coming winter will indeed be another La Nia winter. Kristin Murphy, Deseret News Flannel, hot chocolate and snowshoes are in the winter forecast from the Farmers' Almanac, which is predicting a shivery 2022-2023 winter for most of the United States. The stream has the latest alert links, a map of alerts and where, and articles. National Weather Service The airport two-day total of 0.74" ranks as the 3rd wettest New Year's Eve/Day on record. In northern Arizona, its snowy and chilly, though usually still quite dry. The cooling of these waters can have an atmospheric domino effect that influences weather patterns across the globe. The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, was on the dry side as just over one and a third of an inch /1.34"/ was recorded. Rainfall at the Tucson International airport, the official location in Tucson, of 0.67" is 1.57" BELOWnormal & ranks as the 14th driest January through March period on record. While this isn't always the case every time La Nia is present, it is representative of the average impacts. The previous two occurrences were in 1984 & 2010. The seasonal average dew point value was 19. The metro area for most of the month remained under a favorable monsoon flow pattern that brought daily round of showers and thunderstorms which produced strong gusty winds, heavy rain and flash flooding. For us across the Southwest, La Nia typically brings drier-than-normal conditions during the winter. Winter 2021-2022 One month remains in climatological Winter and so far it has been warmer (55.7 or +2.3) and slightly drier (1.62" or -0.18") than normal. including sunrise/sunset and moon phases. Odds are tilted toward a colder than average winter from the Northern Plains and Great Lakes to northern New England. Backed by the 5th warmest June and 7th warmest July and the warmest Summer average low temperature on record (tied with 2020), Summer 2022 goes into the record books asthe 3rd warmest Summer on record, tied with the Summers of 2013, 2015 & 2019. The average yearly temperature, through the end of June, of 68.5 is 1.3 above normal and ranks as the 7th warmest on record. The last year in which Tucson waited until April to set/tied a record temperature was back in 2010. The upcoming El-Nino phase should make problems with drought mainly in the grain and corn belt in the USA in the second half of the season in 2022 and in 2023, while the Agriculture stress index in the southern USA should be more favorable, contrary to the years 2020, 2021 and the first half of 2022. Man shoots, kills victim outside of a Phoenix . I hope you had a great Christmas and a Happy New Year so far. RELATED: Heat-related deaths hit historic high in 2021. The weather in Arizona in January is good. Our outlook has the highest confidence of a cold February in the Northern Plains and upper Midwest. How to get these alerts with a premium subscription via e-mail by micro-climate zone AND/OR Get the GPS models for all events on your device enabled? Severe thunderstorms hit portions on the metro area on the 21st and 26th. So, what about this month? What are some fun things to do in the winter in Arizona? Learn everything you need to know about the Grand Canyon State's ever-changing forecasts here. If you click here, this is exactly what my model showed, which is telling me further that we remain on track to keep getting the long range right. On average, there are 0 snowy days in Arizona in January. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts for temperature a 35% chance that they will end up above normal and a 32% chance that they will end up below normal. Above-normal precipitation is forecast in part of the Ohio Valley, an area that could pick up above-normal snowfall if temperatures remain low enough. But when will it really start? Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high 94 on the 3rd to a low of 43 on the 25th. Check out some of our favorite places to go camping in Arizona for inspiration. "We continue the remarkable drive toward a third consecutive La Nia winter, a relatively rare occurrence in our recorded history, with the last three-peat occurring from 1998-2000," said Dr. Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2. Antarctic Winter of 2022 - Coldest on Record. The average monthly low temperature of 72.4 established a new monthly record, eclipsing the old record of 72.3 from 2018. The possibilities are all there you just need to discover them. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued a La Nia Watch on Thursday for the potential re-emergence of La Nia conditions by the fall. The seasonal average temperature of 55.3 goes into the record books as the 13th warmest on record, tied with Winter 1942-1943 & last winter. It begins just at the backend of Arizonas monsoon season, which officially comes to a close on Sept. 30. The December 2021 forecast went exactly as thought, word for word in both regions. The Spring seasonal forecast for the area, issued February 17th, called for a 46% chance of above normal temperatures & a 42% chance of below normal precipitation. Precipitation across the metro area, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, ranged from 1.75" to 4.00" with the highest totals occurring north of Tangerine Road extending east from Dove Mountain in Marana to the northern part of Oro Valley. Support local journalism. Or rather when will it finally feel like fall? This is the 3rd straight January in which the monthly low temperature, recorded at the airport, was NOT colder than 30. The last seven days of the month was dry with below normal high and low temperatures. We are already at 10 for Los Angeles, which shows we are on track here in the Desert Southwest with that number not even close to being a traditional La Nina. Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 104 on the 6th and 30th to a low of 70 on the 23rd. Its the best time of year to visit if youre a fan of hiking, for example. National Weather Service account_box Log in person_add Join settings Settings Sensor Network Maps & Radar Severe Weather News & Blogs Mobile Apps Historical Weather star 36.91 N, 111.46 W July climate data across southeast Arizona. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures for the entire year. Outside of work, you can likely find her curled up on the sofa with a hot cup of coffee, watching a crime TV show or scary movie. The wather in Arizona in January can vary between cold and nice weather days. Then it smashed that record. Winter could pound the Northeast with a vengeance starting in mid-December before potentially intensifying in January,. After a week of travel, a bout with a head cold, and a new A-fib diagnosis, hiked some beautiful country with the Britts. Climate Predictions 6-10 Days 8-14 Day Climate Probability Official 30-Day Forecast The above maps are from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. While it's true that large volcanic eruptions have historically had a temporary cooling effect on earth's climate, that's not the case for the Tongan eruption. Temperatures: Below Average, Arizona Colder weather is predicted to come in between Nov. 16 and 19 and settle in for good come Nov. 24 to 27. Weather Forecast Legend WeatherTAB helps you plan activities on days with the least risk of rain. The table below shows the breakdown for highs, low maximums and high minimums. According to The Farmer's Almanac, Arizona's 2021-2022 winter season will bring along a "polar coaster" with temperature swings lasting well into March of 2022. April climate data across southeast Arizona. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM. Three temperature records (one high & two warm lows) were set or tied. Gone are the ridiculously hot days, replaced with pleasant, mild ones perfect for hitting the trails in places you generally shouldnt hike in the summer (Phoenix comes to mind). If you're looking forward to snow, mark January on your calendars. In northern Arizona, its snowy and chilly, though usually still quite dry. 3. All NOAA. Temperature extremes ranged from a high of 111 on June 16th to a low of 66 on June 5th. Click on the image to the right to see how 2022 compared to the historical record. The states climate is varied and unique, featuring many different biomes and environments. Every year, the Farmers Almanac, which has been printed since 1818, attempts to answer that question with weather predictions based on generations of perception, experience, and common sense, according to its website. To troubleshoot, here is the link to get situated. Rainfall amounts were mostly between 0.25" and 0.75". Since we never quite know what to expect, this upcoming season couldn't possibly catch us off-guard right? The forecast panned out well with Spring 2022 coming in warmer and drier than normal. The snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin was at 133 percent of the 30-year historical average as of Monday, and sits at 101 percent of what the basin has received on average through an . The last day of 2022 was dry with afternoon temperatures in the upper 60's to lower 70's. Apr. Here are some of the monthly temperature highlights during 2022: A total of sixteen daily record temperatures were set or tied during 2022. There should be enough snow on the ground still if you're looking to hit the slopes, but any further lashing will (hopefully) hold off for a little while longer. La Nia is expected to be the main driver for the third winter in a row. Two were for record highs and three were for record warm low temperatures and all of them occurred in December. We start off the new year here with the January 2022 forecast. This ranks as the 5th warmest monsoon on record, tied with 2011. Arizona winters aren't known for being white or cold, but this is getting ridiculous. The La Nia weather phenomenon is expected to extend through winter for the third year in a row, bringing below-average rain and snow and above-average temperatures. By Paul Rusnak | September 11, 2022. According to the Farmers' Almanac (in publication since 1818), states in . The states climate is varied and unique, featuring many different biomes and environments. The average yearly temperature, through the end of August, of 73.5 is 1.0 above normal and ranks as the 6th warmest on record. Gone are the ridiculously hot days, replaced with pleasant, mild ones perfect for hitting the trails in places you generally shouldnt hike in the summer (Phoenix comes to mind). PHOENIX (3TV/CBS 5) Look for one last, mostly sunny day before an unsettled weather pattern arrives for the next few days in Arizona.Light winds and high clouds can be expected this morning . Winter is a great time to hike the Grand Canyon (just be careful of ice), and its also a fun time to go camping in the milder central and southern parts of the state. The Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), a well-established and innovative inter- and transdisciplinary climate research team, is looking for a Program Manager to join our team. However, this ingredient in the forecast cannot be predicted until winter is in progress. December 2021 Weather Pattern Forecast Outlook For Southern California; December Arctic Blasts and Storms, FACEBOOK PAGES TO JOIN! As is usually the case during the summer thunderstorm season rainfall amounts, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, ranged widely from 3.00" to 9.00" with localized amounts between 9" and 11" along the lower elevations of the Catalina and Rincon mountains. An very odd quirk happened this November when you compare the daily highs this year versus last year. An statistical oddity occurred in 2022 in that not one daily rainfall record was set at the official recording site. Normal rainfall for December 0.96". Please try another search. Monthly Weather - Phoenix, AZ As of 7:03 am MST Feb View Apr Sun mon tue wed thu fri sat 26 57 37 27 63 42 28 63 48 1 62 37 2 55 41 3 60 39 4 67 44 Fri 03 | Day 60 2% SW 5 mph. The International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded 4.13" which ranks as the 52nd driest Summer on record. The Tucson International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, has recorded 1.80" which is four-tenths of an inch below normal and ranks as the 57th driest first quarter of the water year on record. These drought conditions developed after a drier-than-normal 2020 monsoon season and a dry 2020/2021 winter season. Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 100 on the 26th to a low of 39 on the 13th. Sorry, the location you searched for was not found. The monthly average temperature of 54.3 is almost two degrees below normal and ranks as the 59th warmest February on record. Expect snowy days, but not as many as we usually see (which isn't great for this whole drought situation we're in). The story is much different in the Catalina and Rincon mountains where between 4" and 10" of precipitation has been recorded so far this water year. By weather.com meteorologists October 13, 2022 At a Glance A generally colder than usual winter is expected in the northern tier of states.