Ron DeSantis now leads former President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points in the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. All Rights Reserved. Following Margaret Thatchers departure from Downing Street, support for Scottish independence fell back slightly and was polling around 30% in the middle of the 1990s. YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,081 Welsh voters, aged 16+, between February 3 and February 7 for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. Full question: Nicola Sturgeon says the SNP will fight the next General Election as a de facto referendum on independence. You can unsubscribe whenever you want. Poll reveals impact of Nicola Sturgeon's resignation on voting and independence. Inside Labour's battle to retake Scotland as party warned not to 'count chickens too soon', Public mental health is the true measure of political success. Notable recent election polls Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "Do you agree that Scotland should become an independent country?" Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely oppose Scotland becoming an independent country' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming an independent country' what number would you consider yourself to be?". In the case of Wales, Politics.co.uk has drawn on the most recent YouGov poll produced on 27 February. Sign up for a FREE NewsNow account and get our email alert of the day's top stories from the UK and around the world. State of the Nation. On 23 November 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally hold an independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster Parliament. Sustainable shooting key to governments nature recovery plans, Press release: Shootings role outlined to the new Welsh parliament, Liz Truss says she would use nuclear warfare, Hidden history: The Nazi-Soviet pact which Russia now tries to deny, The bigotry of Ukip is swamping the Conservative party, Very quietly, the coalition tries to dismantle judicial review, Comment: Anti-porn laws allow police to target those they don't like, Ambulance unions approached for pay talks after GMB tightens derogations, Reticulated giraffe heads to London Zoo before big breeding programme move, IRC Statement on IDC Report into UK Aid spend by the Home Office, Corporation tax is the tool to incentivise net zero, Trees: most accurate data yet shows glaring disparity in tree cover across England. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. Polling of British voters on whether the United Kingdom should rejoin the European Union. * Prediction from Electoral Calculus using the figures from the latest YouGov opinion poll. This feed updates continuously 24/7 so check back regularly. YouGov found . Britain Elects. The rank outsider to become First Minister has only received the public backing of one serving politician, Joanna Cherry, amid struggles to get her campaign going. Stay informed. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' what number would you consider yourself to be?". A YouGov poll shows 56% of Scots support the . It remains to be seen how support for independence will pan out now Rishi Sunak has become prime minister, King Charles III has succeeded Elizabeth II, and as Nicola Sturgeon steps down as first minister. This page was last edited on 4 March 2023, at 10:18. The majority of people believe that a doctors approval should be needed for a person to change their sex in law. Week-in-Review: Covid sleaze is back and more politically potent than ever, Former Conservative party chairman: Sue Gray appointment proves Starmer is man of the establishment. The poll was conducted for The Sunday Times over the past week as a review for the Scottish Prison Service found that the process of admitting transgender people to prisons should be improved in the wake of the Isla Bryson case. If you'd like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, or sign up for my weekly email: Stay informed. Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided. A YouGov poll published this morning (2 March) makes encouraging reading for the Prime Minister. Latest opinion polls news, commentary and analysis, including political and voting intention polls, by polling companies including YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation. The poll for the Sun found. We list the most recent surveys: Wings Over Scotland poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 14 Feb 2023: Confirmation Bias for BeginnersFull results, By well over 2 to 1, respondents felt that they were being let down by the people who are supposed to speak for them. In early November 2021, the furore over the resignation of the Conservative MP Owen Patterson saw the trend Conservative vote share fall by a further 3%. Could Labour Profit From Nicola Sturgeons Resignation? Boris Johnson may have misled Parliament over Partygate, investigating MPs have claimed, Matt Hancocks reaction to his affair with Gina Coladangelo has been revealed in leaked WhatsApp messages, Numerous Russian attacks in eastern Donetsk have been repelled in the past day, Ukraines military has said, The White House has confirmed that Joe Biden had a cancerous skin lesion removed last month, At least 17 people have died in a fire at a fuel depot in Indonesia, Saving Private Ryan actor Tom Sizemore has died aged 61 after a brain aneurysm, Labour were just two points behind the SNP in Scotland before Nicola Sturgeon's shock, Support for Scottish independence at 46% before Nicola Sturgeon resigned poll. You can unsubscribe whenever you want. Under any election held on this basis, the Liberal Democrats would also be on course to gain 22 seats from the Conservatives. YouGov, Panelbase, reported in the Times, 27 Nov 2021, Scot Goes Pop, Panelbase, reported in the Times, 31 Oct 2021Report I Data, For Women Scotland, 2023.For Women Scotland is a not-for-profit company limited by guarantee. ", Question asked: "As you may know, the UK Supreme Court has ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold another independence referendum without the UK Government's agreement. The previous YouGov covered the 23rd - 26th of January. YouGov surveyed 1,043 Tory members and found that 60% said they'd vote for Truss, compared to 26% who opted for Sunak, the former chancellor whose resignation helped precipitate Johnson's . In Wales, Plaid Cymru is currently on course to lose one seat to Labour. Todays poll found that, among those who expressed a view, 76 per cent of voters believe the Scottish governments plans to change the law on gender recognition would pose a safety risk in women-only spaces, such as prisons, hospital wards and changing rooms while some 24 per cent disagreed. The Tory lead over Labour was as high as 10% throughout April, May and June 2021. Worst-case scenario could see 120,000 Covid-19 deaths this winter scientists, Watch: Gary Neville slams PM as he rages over brutal UC cut, French border guards warn this will be what it is like after Brexit. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. Fewer than three in ten (29 per cent) respondents said they supported the [Gender Recognition Reform] bill, but more than half (54 per cent) said they opposed it. If you can, please show your appreciation for our free content by donating whatever you think is fair to help keep TLE growing and support real, independent, investigative journalism. The SNP is on 30 per cent, the Tories on 15 per cent and the Lib Dems on 11, with others on 3 per cent. 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This compares with the position in the 2014 Independence referendum, when 55.3% of Scottish voters opposed plans for an Independent Scotland, with 44.7% voting in favour. Two new UK-wide opinion polls have added weight to the growing belief that Labour would be close to catching the SNP if a General Election were held anytime soon.. A survey for YouGov gives the SNP a vote share of 36 per cent, with Labour on 33 per cent, the Conservatives on 19 with the Lib Dems just ahead of the Greens on seven and five per cent respectively. Explore what the world thinks, discover our solutions, and join our community to share your opinion. Kemi Badenoch, who has proved popular . In the latter part of 2020, the Conservatives lead in the polls diminished significantly. The Conservative party regained a minor amount of ground in the first 3 weeks of the Rishi Sunak premiership, but Mr Sunaks honeymoon period has been short lived, and those advances stalled soon after Jeremy Hunts financial statement. Id 100% bang this poll pic.twitter.com/zW5y7LzwXS. Former Sun boss and arch right-winger Kelvin MacKenzie also seemed to reach the same conclusion. However in the aftermath of fresh partygate allegations in January 2022, followed by the publication of the Gray report in February 2022, the Conservatives dropped to their lowest polling position for over a quarter of a century, falling to a point last seen during the midst of the Major government back in the 1990s. The current voting intention trend can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Delta Poll (27 February) which placed Labour on 46%, the Conservatives on 31%, and the Liberal Democrts on 8%. SNP MP apologises over ignorant racial slur, Boris Johnson may have misled parliament on several occasions, Billionaires should not exist Bernie Sanders, Bernie Sanders issues stark warning to Brits over NHS, Fear and Loathing in the New Conservatives, Elevenses: Fear and Loathing in the New Conservatives. Published by Statista Research Department , Feb 15, 2023. The government is becoming increasingly authoritarian and our media is run by a handful of billionaires, most of whom reside overseas and all of them have strong political allegiances and financial motivations. According to YouGov's latest poll of Welsh voters, the Tories are set to be left with just two MPs in the country after the next general election. Where does the public really stand on womens rights and proposals to reform the Gender Recognition Act? Entering the summer, levels of Conservative support took a sudden 3% hit following the resignation of then health secretary, Matt Hancock, in June 2021. Energy & utilities. Big names to go would include Joanna Cherry and Mhairi Black. As always you can unsubscribe at any time. However amidst mounting pressure on Boris Johnsons position in late June, and the drawn out nature of his resignation in early July, the Labour party once extended their lead over the Conservatives in the polls. Keir Starmer's lead over Rishi Sunak has increased to 7 pointsin terms of the party leader Britons think would make the best prime minister, by 34% (+2) to 27% (-1). Consumer packaged goods (CPG) Eating & drinking. Those SNP MPs to lose their seats would include Amy Callaghan in East Dunbartonshire (to the Lib Dems) and Richard Thomson in Gordon (to the Tories). Indeed by the time that the Scot, Gordon Brown, became prime minister in 2007, support for Scottish independence had fallen back to 24%, its lowest level for over two decades. excludes 16 and 17 year-olds and did not ascertain likelihood to vote. The figures show the Conservatives on 25% of the vote (+1 from our previous survey on 1-2 November) to Labour's 48% (-2). Similarly, the above analysis has been conducted based on the existing United Kingdom constituency boundaries. The Conservatives have climbed by three percentage points to 33 per cent since the last poll. Don't miss out! A poll of more than 1,000 people . The latest Panelbase survey for The Sunday Time shows those aged 16 to 35 back independence by 62 per cent, compared to 48 per cent for Scottish voters as a whole. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. British Social Attitudes Survey 39, reported in The Times, 22 Sep 2022Full results I Chapter on Culture WarsMain findings: YouGov, May 2022Full report I DataMain findings: Equalities, Human Rights and Civil Justice Committee, Scottish Parliament, reported 23 May 2022, Wings Over Scotland, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 02 May 2022: Voting for people who hate you. However, coinciding with the roll out of the coronavirus vaccine and the conclusion of Boris Johnsons Brexit deal at the end of 2020, the Conservative party once again opened up a significant election poll lead over Labour. The new offer will see teachers getting a 12.3% increase by April 2023, and it will rise to 14% by 2024. @BritainElects. Question asked is stated in notes field. About; Social . Scottish Independence Poll Methodology: The above analysis of support for Scottish independence draws from the published polls of a number of leading firms: YouGov, Survation, ComRes, Redfield and Wilton, Panelbase, Detlapoll, Opinium and IpsosMori. This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. With Labour improving its polling position in Scotand, the party would now gain 12 seats off the SNP in Scotland, albeit the SNP would mitigate those losses slightly by gaining three seats from the Conservatives and one from the Lib Dems. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine heavily dominating the UK news agenda, the position of the UKs political parties became somewhat becalmed during the spring on 2022 with no notable movements in the polls. The latest YouGov/Times vote intention poll shows the Labour party on 54% of the vote, up nine points on their previous record high with YouGov on Monday. Although we'd had a YouGov earlier in February, that was for the Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) and YouGov have since clarified the questions were slightly different and thus not comparable. Polling aggregator Stats for Lefties has calculated that, if this poll were repeated in a general election, the Tories would win just 17 seats behind Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems. The main table includes primarily those polls which ask the same question as the 2014 referendum: "Should Scotland be an Independent Country?". Last updated Feb 28, 2023 View all Articles (514) Voting Intention: Con 23%, Labour 46% politics 1 day ago Trackers Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Voting Intention, tracking changes over time. Easy-to-digest video clips. In the early part of 2023, Labour had started to increase its polling lead again and was once again approaching 50% in the polls. More Scots are seeing the reality of SNP rule. Should a general election be held today, this would likely lead to the following composition of the House of Commons: The result of a general election is projected as a Labour victory with the party securing an outright majority of 46 seats. Six reasons Labour might not win the next election alone, Urban Flight A real threat to many formerly safe seats in the Blue Wall. Britain Elects. In late February 2022, and prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there were some tentative signs that the Conservative position had recovered slightly from its early 2022 lows. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. We will not share your email address with any third parties. Welcome to my summary of the latest national voting intention poll from each pollster currently operating in Britain. conducted. Humza Yousaf blasted as he promises to spend taxpayer cash on more independence prospectuses, The Scottish Government health secretary, and front-runner to replace Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister, used his speech in Arbroath to claim that he was going to 'kickstart the independence campaign', Ange Postecoglou hails Reo Hatate Celtic impact as he makes 'another couple of levels' claim. Journalism in Britain is under threat. This is the same constant level of dont knows that has been seen in most polls over the last 5 years. Although it is only a relatively small Scottish sample (148 people out of 1702 polled in total across the UK), the results would see 23 Nats lose their seats to leave them with 25 MPs. Our current polling average is based on polls by Savanta ComRes (fieldwork completed May 4). Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament. NewsNow aims to be the world's most accurate and comprehensive aggregator of news about Scotland opinion polls, which are carried out by various polling companies, including members of the British Polling Council (BPC), such as YouGov, Ipsos MORI, and Survation. Please check you have typed it correctly. The historic oil recipe is based on what was used at the coronation of Queen Elizabeth II, the formula of which has been used for hundreds of years. The figures show the Conservatives on 28% of the vote (-4 from our previous survey on 21-23 September) to Labour's 45% (+5) this is the highest Labour lead YouGov has ever recorded. Click to get a sign-in link sent to your email. Politics.co.uks current Westminster projections are also drawn through an aggregate extrapolation of the data on election polls. 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Support for Scottish independence nudged up to 50% for the first time in 2019, soon after Boris Johnson became prime minister. In response to the Redfield and Wilton poll, Scots Labour peer Lord Foulkes tweeted: "SNP on the slide. ((__lxGc__=window.__lxGc__||{'s':{},'b':0})['s']['_222513']=__lxGc__['s']['_222513']||{'b':{}})['b']['_680898']={'i':__lxGc__.b++}; Never miss the day's key interactions and exchanges in parliament. Prior to the collapse in Conservative polling in 2022, it was suggested that equalising constituencies may assist the Conservatives by as many as 10 seats, given that the partys seats in the south of England are currently numerically larger than those found elsewhere in the country. The result of an IndyRef today 2 March 2023. Results are limited to only those who state they will definitely vote. Meanwhile, the latest opinion polls suggest it will be a knife-edge after a recent drop in SNP's approval rating and a small rise in Labour and Conservatives. Access the latest polls, survey results and articles . Gender Recognition Act, Tags: Gender Recognition Act, Gender Recognition Reform, Panelbase, poll, survey. , in which Scotland voted to remain in the EU. Most of the pollsters listed were members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.. All Rights Reserved. In the latest YouGov voting intention poll, the Conservatives have closed their gap with Labour to just four points. @britainelects. Under the current polling, Labour is on course to win seats in parts of the country where it has always been a distant spectator, such as both Bournemouth constituencies in Dorset, Macclesfield in Cheshire, Aylesbury in Buckingham, Southend East in Essex, Weston Super Mare, and Bromley and Chiselhurst in south east London. YouGov is a global public opinion and data company. In the space of a month, support for the SNP in the next Scottish parliament election had fallen from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the constituency vote, and from 40 per cent to 36 per cent in the regional vote and from 43 per cent to 42 per cent for Westminster. And 50% of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 would now vote for Labour, up from 27% at the start of this week. View our Privacy PolicyandTerms & Conditions, TheLondonEconomic.com Open, accessible and accountable news, sport, culture and lifestyle. The new offer will see teachers getting a 12.3% increase by April 2023 and it will rise to 14% by 2024. [1] Following that judgment, the SNP reiterated its intention to campaign in the next UK general election as a de facto independence referendum. Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Scottish independence. Since you are here, we wanted to ask for your help. ", Data in More than 5 years is amalgamation of 5 to 10 years and more than 10 years, Question asked was "Should the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year? Redfield and Wilton (5 February) which placed Labour on 50%, the Conservatives on 24%, and the Liberal Democrts on 10%. YOUGOV has recorded a boost in Scottish independence support, with backing for Yes up four points in its latest polling. Speaking on BBC Scotland's Good Morning Scotland programme, Nicola Sturgeon said her aim at May's Holyrood election was winning a . Scottish election 2021: Polling expert says SNP majority 'on a knife-edge' Small movements in the polls between now and May 6 could make an "important difference to the outcome", according to . Most polling companies listed here are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. Most Recent Independence Poll, YouGov 17th - 20th of February 2023 No Yes Don't Know Headline Excluding Don't Knows 49% (+1) 54% (+1 / -1) 42% (nc) 46% (-1 / +1) 9% (-2) By-Elections By-elections By-Election Result: Dyce, Bucksburn and Danestone February 27, 2023 Comments Off We are sorry, but the email address you entered does not appear to be valid. Copyright 1997 - 2023 NewsNow Publishing Limited. and given the options of "For Scotland to become an independent country" and "For Scotland to remain as part of the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively. Yahoo News / YouGov polls . All rights reserved. Should religious people be allowed to hold top political jobs? Savanta (23 February) which placed Labour on 45%, the Conservatives on 31%, and the Liberal Democrats on 9%. The poll also showed a reversal on the independence question over past month, with support for secession down from 53 per cent to 47 per cent among those expressing a view the lowest since last spring. The use of this format has been criticised by pro-independence politicians. backed Scotland becoming an independent country. Sponsors of pro-Obi opinion polls creating grounds for post-election violence. Scottish Opinion Polls Recent Scottish opinion polls. The leader of the SNP has insisted her party was "not divided". Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. Indeed Conservative support appeared to have grown slightly after Rishi Sunaks October 2021 budget. Changes are shown as (vs that poll / vs last election). The latest monthly polling averages on Scottish independence show No campaigners to have consolidated their lead in the polls once again. NewsNow aims to be the world's most accurate and comprehensive aggregator of news about Scotland opinion polls, which are carried out by various polling companies, including members of the British Polling Council (BPC), such as YouGov, Ipsos MORI, and Survation. N.B. When Johnson announced his resignation on July 7, 2022, YouGov polling showed Labour on 40% and the Tories on 29% an 11 point lead. Scots cop claims World's End serial killer committed 'three more murders in Glasgow ', Retired detective Allan Jones claims Sinclair should have been tried for the murders Anna Kenny, Hilda McAuley and Agnes Cooney, Eddie Howe makes damning Ryan Fraser Newcastle admission as Scotland star's 'commitment' questioned. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. (Excluding Dont Knows the margin is just shy of 70/30, very similar to the margin by which people in polls oppose self-ID generally.